With only 144 days remaining until the November 5 election, the latest data from the polling experts at ABC News’ 538 indicate a virtual tie in the race for the next president of the United States.
Nevertheless, their latest electoral college analysis forecasts that Joe Biden, the Democratic incumbent, emerges victorious in 53 out of 100 simulations. At the same time, Donald Trump, the presumed Republican challenger, prevails in the remaining 47 computerized scenarios. These outcomes fall comfortably within the margin of error.
What Factors Will Be Crucial? Cryptocurrency Is One of Them!
Given the strong mobilization of both party bases and the narrow margins, the outcome is likely to be determined by minor factors that sway the scales in one direction or another. The upcoming debate between the two candidates on June 27 could play a crucial role if one of them delivers an exceptionally strong or weak performance.
A recent poll conducted by Harris Interactive, in partnership with Grayscale, indicates that in 2024, both political parties must recognize the significance of cryptocurrency policy and Bitcoin. This is because voters have shown a growing interest in this matter.
Various factors could explain why voters are interested in this matter. One of them is the recent approval of 11 exchange-traded funds by the SEC in January. This development has made it more convenient for individuals with pensions, 401(k) plans, and other institutional investments to invest in Bitcoin. Prior to Bitcoin reaching a record-breaking price of $73,797 in March, it garnered significant interest following a drop to below $16,000 per coin in November 2022.
The context provided by those factors lays the groundwork for several significant discoveries from the Harris survey:
- Trump recently presented himself as the candidate who supports cryptocurrency at a fundraiser in Silicon Valley. The data from The Harris Poll reveals that cryptocurrency is a subject that transcends political affiliations, as both Republicans (18%) and Democrats (19%) show comparable rates of ownership. Considering the striking similarity of the 538 polling data, if one of the candidates manages to attract voters from the opposing party solely on the topic of cryptocurrency, it might prove to be sufficient.
- The importance of Bitcoin is growing as a result of more significant economic trends and its development, with a significant portion of investors (47%) now anticipating the inclusion of cryptocurrency in their investment portfolios (an increase from 40% in the previous year).
- Just like in the first phase of polling this year, voters once again emphasized the significance of inflation by ranking it as the top issue in the election (28%). This further highlights the potential value and importance of assets like Bitcoin, which serve as a hedge against inflation due to its limited supply.
In addition, a separate study conducted by Security.io earlier this year revealed that up to 40% of Americans possess various types of cryptocurrency. That adds up to 93 million people from different political affiliations coming together to support a single, cutting-edge asset. It has never been the situation leading up to a presidential election.
Biden’s Misstep Could Be Very Costly
President Biden’s unwise decision to veto sensible, bipartisan legislation aimed at repealing the SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) No. 121 may have significant political consequences for him during the upcoming elections. SAB 121 creates additional challenges and costs for banks and institutions when it comes to holding cryptocurrency on behalf of individuals. It also hampers other advancements in the realm of digital assets.
The timing of that decision couldn’t have been more unfortunate, especially with the election just around the corner. It’s particularly concerning considering the dissatisfaction among voters with the current economic policies. A recent study conducted by the Brookings Institute revealed that a significant majority of voters, approximately 65%, expressed a positive outlook on the state of the economy during the tenure of President Trump. In contrast, under President Biden’s administration, only 38% of voters shared the same sentiment. Additionally, the study found that a mere 18% of young adults feel that their financial situation has improved over the past year.
The previous piece of information holds significant importance as per the findings of the Harris poll, where a majority of Gen Z and Millennial voters, approximately 62%, expressed their belief in the potential of crypto and blockchain technology as the future of finance. Suppose these figures remain consistent over the next 120 days. In that case, there is a possibility that the White House may experience a significant shift in perspective influenced by the return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office.
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